This increase will mainly affect low-income families in the United Kingdom and Germany, according to the same analysis cited by the EFE agency.
The study on the energy cost of war for European households calculates that the energy bill per household in 2022 will be 3,400 euros in Germany, more than 3,000 euros in the United Kingdom, 2,800 euros in France and a little less of 2,000 euros in Italy and Spain.
Compared to the pre-war situation, this represents for the average consumer an additional loss of disposable income of two percentage points in the United Kingdom, 1.5 percentage points in Germany and one percentage point in France, Italy and Spain.
The study presents several scenarios and in the worst case, where supply is partially cut off and prices increase by 70% (calculating that the probability of this happening is 20%), disposable income would be reduced by 2 .5 additional percentage points.
The same report indicates that if no new state support measures are adopted, a drop in consumer spending could reduce GDP growth by 0.6 percentage points in the United Kingdom, 0.5 in Germany, 0.4 in France, Italy and Spain.
In the worst case, the decline in GDP for less consumer spending could reach 1.1 percentage points.
Regarding the state support measures that should be adopted, the study estimates that additional support of 20,000 million euros is necessary in Germany, 14,000 million euros in the United Kingdom, 17,000 million euros in France and around 10,000 euros in Italy and Spain.
In the worst case, the additional support needed could reach 75 billion euros in Germany and 50 billion euros in the United Kingdom and France.